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Lettre n °401
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29th June 2009

Interview with Gunnar Lund, Ambassador of Sweden in France




Foundation : Elections/Albania | Elections/Bulgaria | Agriculture Financial Crisis : Austria | Spain | France | Ireland | Italy | Latvia | Poland | Russia | Turkey | IMF | UN Parliament : EPP | New Name | New Group Commission : Commissioners | Deficit | Energy | Cancer | Public Finances | Internet Council : Agriculture/Fisheries | Environment Germany : Women | USA | CDU Austria : Russia Cyprus : Barroso | Crossing Spain : Prize | A400M France : Government Greece : OSCE | Immigration Hungary : 20 years/Fall of the Iron Curtain Ireland : Lisbon Treaty Italy : G8 Luxembourg : Unemployment Poland : IMF | Inflation Portugal : Elections | UK UK : Poland Romania : EU/Programme Sweden : EU Presidency | Euro Albania : Summit Serbia : Croatia Turkey : EU? Ukraine : Presidential Election Council of Europe : Lithuania | Drugs NATO : Russia Eurostat : Consumption | Fiscality | Industry | GDP Studies/Reports : Energy | Iran | Israel/Palestine | Economic Forecasts | Drugs Publications : America/Eujrope/Africa Culture : Bach/Mendelssohn | Exile | UNESCO/Sites

Agenda | Subscriptions and other information


Foundation :
Elections/Albania

The Prime Minister's Democratic Party (PDSH) is said to have won the general elections on 28th June in Albania. According to an exit poll undertaken by the Gani Boni institute and broadcast on the television channel TV Klan, the Democratic Party was due to win 47.5% of the vote drawing ahead of its main adversary, the Socialist Party (PSSH) led by Edi Rama, which was due to win 38.8% of the vote. The Socialist Movement for Integration (LSPI) led by Ilir Meta was due to win 6.5%. Another exit poll by IPR Marketing credits Sali Berisha's Democratic Party with a 4 points lead over the PSSH. Finally a third poll by Zogby International also declared the Head of Government's party as the election winner. Turnout was high rising to over 60% in comparison with 56% in the general elections of 3rd July 2005. The election took place without any major incident.

Elections/Bulgaria

4,295 candidates representing 14 political parties and four party coalitions are running in the general elections that will take place on 5th July next in Bulgaria. According to the most recent poll by Mediana and published in the daily Standart, Boïko Borissov's GERB is due to win 35.8% of the vote ahead of the Socialist Party led by outgoing Prime Minister 23.9%, the MDL, is due to win 12.8%, Ataka 8.9%, the Order, Law and Justice Party 6%, the Blue Coalition 5.7% and Lider 3.9%.

Agriculture

In a paper published in October 2008 by the Robert Schuman Foundation, Nicolas Jean Brehon looked into the reforms undertaken with regard to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Although the threat of the food crisis was re-emerging he notably suggested that foodstuffs become a focal point of the CAP interventions. The change in name of the Minister for Agriculture and Fisheries who is now responsible for foodstuffs is a move in the right direction ... This paper is available on the Foundation's site in paper or PDF format for a fee of 10€.


Financial Crisis :
Austria

According to revised forecasts published on 26th June the ongoing recession in Austria since the start of the first quarter is due to continue during 2009, with the economic institutes, Wifo and IHS forecasting a 3.4% and 4.3% decline in the GDP before a return to growth in 2010. Austrian GDP decreased by 2.6% in the first quarter of 2009, which was the second quarter in decline after -0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008. In 2008 Austria recorded a GDP growth of 1.8%.

Spain

On 23rd June Spanish Secretary of State for the Economy and the Budget Carlos Ocaña announced the state of the national accounts. In May Spain recorded a 19,543 million euro deficit ie 1.78% of the GDP in comparison with a deficit of 2,957 million euros at the same point in the last financial year. In addition to this the Spanish government created an emergency fund on 26th June for the financial sector to a total of 9 billion euros thereby allowing the state to enter the capital of organisations that are in difficulty. The funds, baptised Frob might increase resources by 27 billion euros in 2009 alone. With regard to its initial allocation 6.75 billion euro are public moneys and 2.25 billion euro are being given by the existing guarantee funds in the banking sector that are fed by financial establishments.

France

According to INSEE figures released on 26th June the GDP dropped by 1.2% in the first quarter of 2009. Household consumer spending has risen slightly (+0.2%, after +0.1% in the previous quarter). According to figures published by the Employment Ministry on 25th June the number of job seekers registered with the Employment Agency in category A lay at 2,543,100 in mainland France at the end of May 2009. This figure represents an increase in comparison with the end of April 2009 (+1.5% ie +36000). Over one year it had increased by 26.4%. In addition to this on 24th June the Budget Minister delivered a document to the Finance Commission at the National Assembly stating that France's public deficit was due to reach 6%-6.5% of the GDP in 2011 and 5%-5.5% of the GDP in 2012; this is well over the 3% limit allowed by Brussels. France's public deficit is due to reach 7% and 7.5% of the GDP in 2009 and will probably be the same in 2010.

Ireland

On 26th June the European Commission authorised the emergency recapitalisation of the Anglo Irish Bank based on the rules included in the EC treaty relative to state aid. This aid provided by the Irish authorities rose to 4 billion euros. It will enable the prevention of severe disruption of the Irish economy without affecting the free competition principle. Indeed this aid of limited duration has been granted as part of a restructuring plan of the bank that is due to be presented before the end of November 2009.

Italy

Silvio Berlusconi's government adopted a law on 26th June planning for a new package of anti-crisis measures to a total of nearly 2 billion euros. The main measure plans for the semi-removal of taxes on company profits if these are reinvested. The other leading measure is the reduction with regard to gas bills for companies and families. The plan will cost the Treasury around two billion euros if new expenditure and tax reductions are included. It also includes the expenditure of 190 million euros to help unemployment insurance bodies, funding for vocational training for those who are in danger of losing their jobs, the temporary exoneration of tax for those who suffered the earthquake in Aquila (6th April) and the re-imbursement of up to 70% of the nominal value of shareholders of the former national airline Alitalia dissolved in January 2009.

Latvia

The European Commission is to deliver the second part of its aid to Latvia "in the weeks to come", after having gained the agreement of EU countries' experts," it announced on 26th June. "The Commission consulted the Economic and Financial Committee," that rallies the representatives of the treasuries and central banks of EU countries, "and will now finalise its revised agreement principle" with Latvia "as well as the technical preparation for the second prat of the loan that will be paid soon." Latvia that is suffering greatly from the economic crisis received a loan of 7.5 billion euros at the end of 2008 as part of the rescue plan undertaken by the IMF in which the EU is taking part to a total of 3.1 billion euros.

Poland

Polish Finance Minister Jan Rostowski announced on 23rd June a rise in the 2009 budgetary deficit from 18.2 to 27 billion zlotys (from 4 to 5.9 billion euros) as well as a slight decrease in GDP growth forecasts from 0.5% to 0.2%. These changes will be part of the preparation for a budgetary collective by Donald Tusk's liberal government. "The rise in deficit is inevitable and major, up to 27 billion zlotys," said the minister during a press conference. "We are planning in a responsible manner for a 0.2% rise in the GDP," he added. Some hours earlier the IMF announced its own forecasts with regard to the development of the Polish GDP in 2009, reckoning on a decrease of 0.5% and a slight recovery of 1% in 2010.

Russia

On 24th June in its 19th quarterly report on Russia the World Bank announced that in 2009 the country's GDP was due to fall by 7.9%. In its previous report in April it forecast a contraction of only 4.5%. This pessimistic forecast goes together with others: unemployment may reach 13% and poverty levels may rise to 17.4% by the end of the year. In spite of everything it appears that the Russian economy may emerge from the crisis at the beginning of 2010, with growth of 2.5%. However according to the report by the World Bank the social impact of the crisis will be more serious than anticipated to date by the Russian authorities.

Turkey

The OECD published a report on 24th June on the economic situation in Turkey, which was part of the OECD's Economic Perspectives. According to this study economic activity started to contract at the beginning of 2008, with the decline in demand amplifying the effects of the international recession. The GDP is due to contract by nearly 6% in 2009 before recovering in 2010. The size of the production gap will bring inflation within the range that was set as an objective. Given the uncertainty that reigns over the world and domestically the credibility of the economic policy is vital to shore up confidence and recovery. A new agreement with the International Monetary Fund will help to protect both national and international investor confidence. Structural reform aiming to accelerate the entry of companies into the formal sector will help to improve long term growth perspectives.

IMF

The International Monetary Fund welcomed the Irish government's work in the face of the extremely fierce recession that is striking the Irish economy both in terms of preventing the rise in public deficit as well as in stabilising the national financial sector. IMF managers "lauded the rapidity and the size of the authorities' response to date but noted that this work should continue for an extended length of time," announced the international institution whose HQ is in Washington, in its annual healthcheck on the Irish economy. The IMF believes that the government should show greater flexibility and pragmatism in its reaction to the crisis, "given the complexity of the political dilemma that looms and the perspectives of recovery that are due to be modest."

UN

The UN conference with regard to the financial and economic crisis and its effects on development started on 24th June in New York. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon asked for commitment in terms of financial aid to become concrete notably at the G8 and G20 summit; he also wants to guarantee developing countries adequate resources to develop recovery programmes that favour rapid recuperation in trade. The UN and the UN Programme for the Environment (UNPE) also insisted on the investment of funds for economic recovery in the environment sectors, a dynamic industry that can help towards economic recovery.


Parliament :
EPP

On 23rd June outgoing chair of the parliamentary group the EPP (European People's Party) Joseph Daul was re-elected to his post by 225 of the 228 MEPs present. The French MEP has been chair of the EPP since January 2007. He succeeded Hans-Gert Pöttering. Thanking his colleagues for their renewed confidence the Group Chair spoke of his determination to continue work over the next five years by implementing EPP priorities: values, social market economy, security, migration policy and the place of Europe in the world. Following the creation of a new conservative group (European Conservatives and Reformers, ECR) the EPP has abandoned the title "ED" (European Democrats). The EPP will remain the leading political group in the European Parliament with 264 members. The EPP group also elected 10 vice-presidents.

New Name

On 23rd June 21 MEPs of the Italian Democratic Party (PDI) joined the Party of European Socialists (PES). In exchange for this collaboration the PES accepted a name change to become the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (PASD) that now comprises 183 MEPs. The chair of the group was again given to German Martin Schulz, who led the PES in the last term in office.

New Group

On 23rd June the chair of the British Conservative Party, David Cameron gave in to the recommendation made by his party with regard to the creation of an anti-federalist group in the European Parliament. This new group, the European Conservatives and Reformers (ECR)initially comprised 55 members from eight countries but MEP Finn Hannu Takkula withdrew from this coalition to remain with the alliance of European democrats and liberals. Hence the ECR now comprises at present 54 MEPs from only 7 countries including 26 Britons, 15 Poles and 9 Czechs.


Commission :
Commissioners

The Lithuanian Finance Minister, Algirdas Semeta and Pole, Pawel Samecki member of the management council of the National Bank of Poland were appointed members of the European Commission announced the European executive in a press release. The two new commissioners were appointed by their respective governments who announced their decision over the last few days "in agreement with the President of the Commission", said Brussels. President of the Commission José Manuel Barroso intends to grant the Budget and Financial Programming portfolio to Algirdas Semeta who will replace Dalia Grybauskaite, elected President of Lithuania said the release. Pawel Semecki, 51, who is replacing Danuta Hübner elected MEP, will be responsible for Regional Policy according to the Commission. Pawel Semecki, before being appointed to the National Bank in 2004 had been chief deputuy of the Polish European Integration Office and Deputy Finance Minister.

Deficit

On 24th June the European Commission decided to grant between one and three years to five new countries (Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Malta) for them to bring their deficit under the 3% limit of the GDP in application in the EU. In terms of budgetary discipline the Commission has asked Poland to bring the rate down below 3% in 2012, Romania and Lithuania have to do the same by 2011, and Malta in 2010. It also delayed the date when Hungary, already undergoing an excessive deficit procedure, is to come back into the norm from 2009 to 2011; the date has been delayed from 2010 to 2014 for the UK. An excessive deficit procedure aims to pressure States so that they bring their deficits within the limit. It can go as far as adopting financial sanctions in the most serious cases with regard to countries in the euro area. Procedures will be opened against 11 countries which declared deficits superior to 3% in 2008.

Energy

On 25th June the Commission took firm steps with regard to the 25 Member States which are preventing European consumers from taking best advantage of the competitive, open energy market since they are not respecting community legislation. Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Latvia, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Sweden and the UK will receive warning letters for not having respected regulation measures applicable in the area of gas and electricity.

Cancer

On 24th June the Commission created the European Partnership for Action against Cancer. The partnership will focus on action that can be taken at EU level to prevent and control more effectively cancer across Europe. In Europe, one in three people will develop cancer in their lifetime. This translates to 3.2 million people being diagnosed with the disease every year. Cancer is not equally distributed in Europe and the chances of surviving cancer differ greatly between countries. By bringing together all relevant organisations working on cancer, the intention is to identify gaps, address needs and learn from each other.

Public Finances

On 23rd June the Commission published a report on public finances. As the European economy suffers its worst post-war recession, the European Recovery Plan provides needed fiscal support to ailing economies. But rising public debts and the contingent liabilities incurred by governments to support the financial sector, together with the prospected increases in age-related expenditure and slowdown in potential growth raise concerns about public finance sustainability. An exit strategy strengthening fiscal policy frameworks, reforming age-related spending and spelling out the broad consolidation measures envisaged when the recovery has taken hold is required to address these concerns and underpin consumer, business and financial market confidence, the 2009 Report on public finances shows.

Internet

Bulgarian and Greek speakers will soon be able to use .eu websites in their own languages. On 26th June the European Commission adopted new community rules to enable internet users and companies to register .eu domain names using the characters of the 23 official languages of the EU which now include the Cyrillic and Greek alphabets. Over the next year Bulgarians, Greeks and Cypriots will be able to use their alphabet to record an .eu domain name. It will also be possible to use the special characters in other languages. Until now the Czechs could only use 27 of the 42 characters in their language, and the Lithuanians could only use 23 of 32.


Council :
Agriculture/Fisheries

On 22nd June the 27 Agriculture Ministers approved the stricter control of trade in food products derivated from cloned animals, without prohibiting them outright as requested by MEPs and some NGO's. This ruling concerns a series of exotic products ranging from algae to plankton and beetle larvae but also and above all foodstuffs derivated from cloned animals. The 27 Fisheries Ministers gave the greenlight for the launch of the aquaculture development plan in the EU on 23rd June. In their opinion farming is a good answer to relieve over-fishing of wild species of fish and crustaceans and meets with consumer demand. They adopted the main guidelines of a development project in the sector by requesting the European Commission to put forward real proposals "for the end of 2009".

Environment

The 27 Environment Ministers adopted a draft regulation on 25th June that aims to reduce industrial pollution in both the air and water. The text aims to reduce gas emissions, nitrogen and sulphur composites, dust particles, asbestos and heavy metals from "major combustion installations" (power stations, oil refineries, and large metallurgical furnaces). The new installations will have to fall in line with the standards of the best techniques available in 2016 and respect authorised pollution limits nationally. Carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) are not concerned by this, which the World Wildlife Fund regretted calling on the future procedure for CO2, the most polluting product in the world, to be included.


Germany :
Women

According to a study by the Institute for the Labour Market and Professional Research (IAB) the number of women in Germany who are employed in highly qualified professions is growing. The feminisation rate has risen since 1994 from 20% to 30% in professions in the physical sciences and chemistry, from 39% to 51% in human sciences, from 37% to 45% in journalism and from 53% to 66% amongst dentists. This phenomenon demonstrates the increase in qualifications and training amongst women explain the authors of the study. But equality between men and women is still a distant goal. More than a general revolution the IAB reveals changes within various professions, whether they are considrered as typically masculine or feminine. A trend is emerging: the share of men is increasing especially within low qualified work, whilst that of women is tending to conquer qualified areas of work.

USA

German Chancellor Angela Merkel travelled to Washington on 25th and 26th June where she met American President Barack Obama. Discussions focused on North Korea, Iran, disarmament, the economic and financial crisis and negotiations on climate. With regard to Iran they stressed the right of the Iranian people to challenge the result peacefully and the freedom of expression and re-iterated the goal to put a halt to the Iranian nuclear programme. The Chancellor welcomed the new orientation of American policy in the area of global warming. With regard to the management of the economic and financial crisis, Barack Obama insisted on the responsiblity born by both countries.

CDU

On 28th June German Chancellor Angela Merkel presented her electoral programme in view of the general elections that will take place on 27th September; she insisted on the need to reduce taxes to boost the economy that is suffering the full force of the crisis. Just three months before the election the Democratic Christian Union and its Bavarian ally the Christian Social Union (CSU) have agreed on the main guidelines in the programme in which the economy occupies a major position whilst Germany is experiencing its greatest recession since the Second World War. "We can bring our country out of this crisis which is unprecedented in the history of the Federal Republic," insisted the chancellor during a press conference. "We are even able to make it stronger than before the crisis." With this 62 page programme that is to be presented officially on 29th June during the CDU-CSU congress, the CDU is trying to draw in voters from the centre, insisting on its attachment to the social market economy, one of the foundation stones of post-war Germany.


Austria :
Russia

On 23rd June Russian Foreign Minister, Serguey Lavrov gave back the Austrian archives confiscated by Russia during the Second World War to his Austrian counterpart Michael Spindelegger. This restitution that heralds the end of a procedure started in 2007 shows that relations between the two countries are good and that even the most difficult issues can be settled.


Cyprus :
Barroso

During his visit to Cyprus on 25th June, the President of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso met Cypriot President Demetris Christofias. He lauded Mr Christofias' commitment and his sincere determination to find a settlement to the issue of the division of the island. "It is a historic occasion to end the conflict once and for all." The President of the Commission added that it was vital to continue work. He also repeated his support and that of the Commission for the leaders' work. In his opinion "reunification will enable all Cypriots to take advantage of Cyprus's membership of the EU."

Crossing

Cypriot President Demetris Christofias and leader of the northern part of the island, Mehmet Ali Talat agreed on 26th June during new discussions organised by the UN to open a new crossing point between the South and North. "Measures will be taken to open the Limnitis crossing," said Demetris Christofias after the meeting. Cypriots are requesting the opening of Limnitis to facilitate access to the capital of Nicosia, to inhabitants of Kato Pyrgos in expectation of the reunification of the island.


Spain :
Prize

On 24th June the jury announced that Albanian writer Ismail Kadaré had won the Asturias Literature Prize 2009 - this award is one of the most prestigious in Spain.

A400M

The Defence Ministers from seven partner countries (Germany, Spain, France, UK, Turkey, Belgium and Luxembourg) involved in the military transport plane programme Airbus A400M only succeeded in reaching a minimum compromise on 22nd June in Sevilla with regard to the future airplane and agreed on a month's additional thinking time. The additional month should lead to a decision on how to integrate the issue of supplementary costs generated by the late delivery of the A400M into future negotiations.


France :
Government

On a proposal of French Prime Minister François Fillon, President Nicolas Sarkozy appointed eight new ministers on 23rd June: Michel Mercier for the Rural Areas and Territorial Development, Christian Estrosi for Industry, Frédéric Mitterand for Culture and Communication, Benoît Apparu for Housing and Urbanisation, Nora Berra for the Elderly, Pierre Lellouche for European Affairs, Marie-Luce Penchard for Overseas Affairs, Henri de Raincourt for Parliamentary Relations. Eight ministers left the government, 9 ministers changed post: Michèle Alliot Marie goes to Justice, Brice Hortefeux is now Home Minister, Xavier Darcos is in charge of Social Affairs, Luc Chatel, Education, Bruno Le Maire, Agriculture, Rama Yade, Sport, Jean-Marie Bockel, Prisons, Hubert Falco, Military Veterans, Valérie Létard, Green Solidarity Development. In all, of the 19 ministers (except for Secretaries of State), the new government only includes four women (21.05%) in comparison with previous seven.


Greece :
OSCE

During an informal meeting on 28th June the OSCE Foreign Ministers showed they were determined to continue dialogue on the development of European security. "Ministers decided to formalise the Corfu process," that is designed to continue dialogue on security" declared Greek Foreign Minister, Dora Bakoyannis after the meeting, since her country is ensuring the presidency of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Immigration

The Greek parliament adopted an amendment hardening regulations with regard to illegal immigration on 24th June doubling the length of provisional detention for those without identity papers and the criminalisation of migrant trafficking. The text takes the length of detention of illegal migrants from three to six months before they are expulsed. It makes it possible to bring detention time up to one year if there are delays in expulsion procedures associated with bureaucratic problems in migrants' home countries. Illegal migrant trafficking which until now was a crime punishable by a five year term in prison depending on the number of migrants involved, is now punishable by 25 years in prison. Smugglers will also have to pay a fine of 20,000 euro that will be increased to 50,000 euro if the crime is repeated.


Hungary :
20 years/Fall of the Iron Curtain

On 27th June in Budapest Hungarian President Laszlo Solyom, together with his counterparts German Horst Köhlker, Austrian Heinz Fischer, Swiss Hans-Rudolf Merz, Slovenian Danilo Turk, Finn Tarja Halonen and the Czech and Latvian Prime Ministers Jan Fischer and Latvian Valdis Dombrovskis, as well as former German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher celebrated the 20th anniversary of the dismantling of the Iron Curtain by Hungary, that preceded the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of the Soviet Bloc. The ceremony occurred 20 years to the day after the symbolic cutting of the barbed wire in the Iron Curtain by Hungarian Foreign Minister Gyula Horn and her Austrian counterpart on 27th June 1989 on the Austro-Hungarian border. The opening of the Iron Curtain, initiated by the Hungarian authorities on 2nd May 1989 precipitated the end of the Berlin Wall and the Soviet Bloc by causing the flow of tens of thousands of refugees at the end of the summer mainly from East Germany.


Ireland :
Lisbon Treaty

During his speech to Parliament on 24th June, Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen called for a united, positive campaign and for a vote in support of the Lisbon Treaty indicating that Ireland "must be at the heart of Europe". The Irish voted against the Lisbon Treaty in the June 2008 referendum. Guarantees were given to them during the European Council of June 2009. A second referendum is due to be organised in the Autumn of 2009. Ireland is the only country that still has to ratify the treaty by referendum. All of the other Member States have ratified the Lisbon Treaty even though the German, Polish and Czech Presidents still have not signed the ratification act that will lead to the completion of the ratification procedure.


Italy :
G8

The G8 Foreign Ministers who met in Trieste on 26th and 27th June deplored the violence that occurred in Iran in the wake of the controversial presidential election on 12th June; they demanded that Teheran respect human rights. The Ministers recommended a settlement to the Iranian crisis via democratic dialogue and peaceful means. The situation in Afghanistan was also addressed: the greenlight was given to new coordinated action. Indeed according to the document ministers agreed that regional cooperation is a vital prerequisite to the stabilisation strategy of both the country and the region. In the eyes of Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini the region is still "an area of concern for the international community" and it is fair to "offer help, support and encouragement."


Luxembourg :
Unemployment

The Economic Committee met on 24th June under the chairmanship of Jeannot Krecké, Economy and External Trade Minister and François Biltgen, Labour and Employment Minister. During this meeting the Economic Committee analysed the situation of the employment market and particlarly new data for May 2009. The number of registered job seekers has declined by 2.2% in comparison with the previous month. The unemployment rate lies at 5.4%. In comparison with May 2008 the number of job seekers increased by 34.9% equivalent to 3,227 people. Over one year the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in May 2008 to 5.4% in May 2009.


Poland :
IMF

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) decreased its main interest rates by 0.25 points on 24th June; these had remained unchanged for two consecutive months after a reduction of 0.25 points at the end of March according to a press release published after a monthly meeting of its Monetary Policy Council. The main rate, the minimum banking reference rate dropped to 3.5%. The rediscount rate fell to 3.75% and the lombard to 5%. The National bank's decision came just after Alexander Hoffmaister, the International Monetary Fund's regional head declared that he recommended the bank of Poland reduce its main rates on 23rd June.

Inflation

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) delivered its report on inflation on 26th June. The latter notably includes confirmed estimates with regard to the inflation process as well as inflation factors. This report includes details about the country's monetary policy over the last three months and inflation forecast data for the ongoing year and for the next two years.


Portugal :
Elections

Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva convened general elections for 27th September thereby respecting the opinion of the majority of political parties, he announced. "I am calling for the electoral campaigns to take place in total serenity," he declared after calling on all citizens to "take part" and fulfil their civic duty.

UK

Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva travelled to the UK on 22nd June. He notably met British Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Discussions mainly focused on the world economic crisis and Afghanistan. The two men agreed that it is necessary to implement the conclusions adopted during the G20 summit.


UK :
Poland

British Foreign Minister David Miliband travelled on 23rd and 24th June to Poland where he delivered his view of Europe and said how it had to adapt to developments in the world context. He also met his Polish counterpart, Radoslaw Sikorksi and the Polish Minister for European Affairs Mikolaj Dowgielewicz. Discussions focused on many subjects: Afghanistan, the future of the EU notably after the European Parliament elections, the European energy policy, the eastern policy, security and economy.


Romania :
EU/Programme

Romanian Prime Minister Emil Boc announced that the European Commission had accredited two new programmes out of the seven Sectoral Operational Programmes for Romania ie the Sectoral Operational Programme "Development of Administrative Capability" and the Sectoral Operational Programme for the Development of Human Resources". The country can now undertake effective payment including with regard to these two operational programmes that enhance the ability to absorb community funds. With this European Commission decision Romania now has six accredited sectoral operational programmes. The sectoral operational transport programme, the last that has to be accredited by the Commission is now undergoing the final stages of the process.


Sweden :
EU Presidency

When Sweden takes over the presidency of the Council of the EU on 1st July next it will give priority to the fight against unemployment and global warming declared the head of government Fredrik Reinfeldt to parliament on 23rd June. The Swedish Presidency would like to bring the EU out of the financial and economic crisis. It also intends to fight global warming. Sweden will represent the EU at the UN summit on Climate Change in Copenhagen in December. Sweden also wants to enhance European cooperation with regard to justice and internal affairs as part of the Stockholm Programme that includes customs and police cooperation, emergency services, cooperation on civil and criminal legislation, asylum, immigration, visas and border controls. On this subject you can also consult the interview granted by the Ambassador of Sweden in France to the Foundation.

Euro

According to a poll published on 23rd June by the Statistics Office if a referendum took place on the adoption of the euro in May 43% of the Swedes would vote against it, 42% for and 15% had no opinion. The number of people against the euro has dropped significantly since the study was undertaken in November 2008 when the figure stood at 47% of the population. The same study shows that in May 2009 56% of the Swedes consider their country's membership of the EU a good thing versus 51% a year earlier.


Albania :
Summit

On 24th June in the town of Vlora, in the centre of Albania, the regional summit took place during which Albanian, Montenegrin, Macedonian and Kosovar Presidents met. It is the first time that the President of Kosovo, Fatmir Sejdiu, was welcomed as such by his counterparts. Albania acknowledged Kosovo's independence in February 2008 whilst Montenegro and Macedonia did so last October. "There are no more pending issues that can prevent dialogue and cooperation between our countries. They are ready to work together for their integration into Euro-Atlantic structures," declared Albanian President Bamir Topi. The aim was to develop cooperation between the four countries for entry into the EU in the long run. "Dialogue and cooperation are vital for peace and stability, but also for the integration of our countries into the EU," added the Albanian President.


Serbia :
Croatia

On 24th June Serbia and Croatia signed an economic cooperation agreement in Zagreb. This agreement enables the enhancement of economic cooperation between the two countries thereby opening up their respective markets. This agreement aims to facilitate the sychronisation of Serbian and Croatian regulations with those of the EU in view of future membership.


Turkey :
EU?

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Brussels on 25th and 26th June where he tried to relaunch his country's membership bid to the EU. Although this visit is the second this year negotiations between the EU and Turkey are almost at a standstill. The electoral victory of the conservative parties in the European elections, with the latter being against Turkey's full membership, is not making the Prime Minister's task an easy one. Reticence on the part of some Europeans to continue enlargement, together with the economic crisis is making Turkey's problems worse; this is all the more so since the reforms demanded a long time ago on the part of the Union have been slowed and even prevented by chronic squabbles between the Turkish political parties.


Ukraine :
Presidential Election

The date of the presidential election was finally established on 23rd June with total approval on the part of parliament; the date will be 17th January 2010. The Ukrainian parliament initially voted against the proposal put forward by President Yushchenko and preferred October 2009. However the Ukrainian Constitutional Court invalidated this decision leading to another vote by parliament. For the time being three personalities have declared they will stand: Yulia Tymoshenko, present Prime Minister, Arseni Yatseniouk, former Foreign Minister and president of the Parliament as well as Viktor Yanukovich. Polls credit these potential candidates with 15-17%, 10-13% and 22-25% respectively in terms of voting intentions in the first round of the election.


Council of Europe :
Lithuania

On 25th June the Council of Europe's Committee for the prevention of torture and inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment (CPT) published the report on their visit undertaken in Lithuania in April 2008. The delegation studied in detail various issues with regard to prisons, notably the situation of juvenile or life-sentence prisoners and prisoners. Moreover and for the first time in Lithuania the delegation visited a hospital in which people sentenced to follow psychiatric treatment are placed; they also visited a social welfare institution.

Drugs

On 25th June on the International Day Against Drugs Abuse and Illegal Trafficking, the Secretary General of the Council of Europe declared "Drugs have no borders. They are an international problem and as a result international cooperation and the exchange of information are a vital prerequisite to undertake effective action." Over the last 30 years the Pompidou Group has believed it highly important, as part of the Council of Europe, to rally together all of those who take part in the fight against drugs abuse and trafficking and to encourage them to cooperate, talk together and share information. Terry Davis also stressed that the Pompidou Group recently extended its activities to countries in the Mediterranean.


NATO :
Russia

NATO and Russia decided on 27th June to re-launch their political and military cooperation as part of the NATO-Russia Council in spite of continued serious disagreements over Georgia. "The NATO-Russia Council is working again," announced the organisation's Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, after the Council meeting. The informal ministerial meeting of the NATO-Russian Council on 27th June in Corfu was the first to take place since the Georgian conflict.


Eurostat :
Consumption

On 26th June Eurostat together with the Directorate General for Health and Consumers published the fourth issue of "Consumers in Europe". This study presents a wide range of data on consumer markets and problems relating to consumer protection. The publication starts with a presentation of the profile of the European consumer and sales networks, followed by 12 chapters devoted to various consumer markets (food products, alcoholic drinks, clothing, lodgings, furnishing, health, transport, communications, leisure and culture, education, restaurants and hotels, goods and various services), each providing data on consumer spending and prices.

Fiscality

According to Eurostat figures published on 22nd June overall tax-to-GDP ratio in the euro area lay at 40.4% in 2007, in comparison with 40.3% in 2006 and 41.2% in 2000. In the EU the tax/GDP ratio rose to 39.8% in 2007, in comparison with 39.7% in 2006 and 40.6% in 2000.

Industry

According to Eurostat data published on 25th June the new industrial orders index dropped by 1% in the euro area in April 2009 in comparison with March 2009. In March the index decreased by 0.2%. In the EU orders regressed by 0.5% in April 2009, compared with -0.5% in March 2009. In comparison with April 2008 entries fell by 35.5% in the euro area and by 35% in the EU.

GDP

According to the first estimates for 2008 published by Eurostat on 25th June the GDP per capita, measured in purchasing power standards varied between 40% and 253% of the European average amongst Member States. Whilst Luxembourg (253 PPS), Ireland (140 PPS) and the Netherlands (135 PPS) recorded the highest GDP levels per capita, Latvia (56 PPS), Romania (46 PPS) and Bulgaria (40 PPS) were amongst the countries that were well below the average.


Studies/Reports :
Energy

A new study by the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) published on 23rd June is devoted to "The Financing of the Global Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Fund (GEEREF). Author Arno Behrens shows how the GEEREF can help to confront climate change. It also welcomes the fact that the GEEREF supports small projects under 10 million euros thereby filling the gap in the funding of renewable energies.

Iran

The Bertelsmann Foundation has just published a study on Iran entitled "Präsidentenwahl im Iran- Hoffnung auf Kooperation?/Presidential Elections in Iran: Is Cooperation Possible?" The author believes that it is time to bring Iran and its neighbours closer together as well as the West even though concessions will have to be made on both sides. Iran will win acknowledgement for its government system and its role as regional power but at the same time it will have to submit to the strict control of its nuclear programme.

Israel/Palestine

The Center for European Reform has just published a study entitled "The EU's approach to Israel and the Palestinians: a Move in the Right Direction". Clara Marina O'Donnell indicates that divisions between Palestinians and the reticence of the new Israeli government to work on a solution that is based on the existence of two viable States weakens the perspectives of peace in the Middle East. The EU must however do its best to support the USA's efforts to bring both parties to the negotiation table.

Economic Forecasts

In its quarterly report "Economic Outlook for the Euro Area in 2009 and 2010" published on 24th June the European Forecasting Network (EFN) maintains that the euro area experienced an unprecedented downturn in its economic activity in the first half of 2009. In 2009 as a whole the authors expect a record 4.5% decline in the GDP and a 16% decrease in industrial production. Next year their expectations are slightly more positive.

Drugs

The production and consumption of heroïne, cocaïne and cannabis is tending to slow in the world, whilst ecstasy and synthetic drugs are proliferating in developing countries revealed the UN Office on Drugs and Crime in its annual report published on 24th June. "The world cocaïne, opium and cannabis markets are stable and are tending to decline, but a rise in the production and the use of synthetic drugs is feared in developing countries," stressed the UNODC, whose HQ is in Vienna.


Publications :
America/Eujrope/Africa

The Institute for European Studies at the Free University of Brussels recently published together with the Monash European and EU Centre of the Melbourne University a paper entitled "America, Europe, Africa, 1945-1973". The first articles are devoted to the position of the USA in the reconstruction of post-war Europe as well as trans-Atlantic relations. The difficulties associated with European military integration are addressed in the second part of the study.


Culture :
Bach/Mendelssohn

On the occasion of the bicentenary of the birth of composer Felix Mendelssohn (1809-1847), the Bach House in Eisenach enlightens the public on an uknown part of musical history in an exhibition on how Bach and Mendelssohn were perceived during the III Reich.

Exile

After Istanbul and Tel Aviv the Jewish Museum of Munich has taken the visitor who wants to find the traces and history of German Jewish emigration to New York. Until 30th August it is completing a series of a three part exhibition entitled "Places of Exile"; an overview of the Jewish community of Munich established in the New York quarter of Washington Heights, in the north of Manhattan.

UNESCO/Sites

UNESCO retained 16 new sites - including three extensions of sites that are already registered - to feature on the world heritage list alongside nearly 900 other sites that have already been listed: the Wadden Sea (Germany and the Netherlands), Dolomites (Italy), the Tubbataha Reef (extension Philippines), Stoclet Palace (Belgium), the Loropéni Ruins (Burkina Faso), Hercules Tower (Galicia, Spain), from the great saltworks of Salins-les-Bains, to the royal saltworks at Arc-et-Senans, the production of open-pan salt (extension, France), Cidade Velha, the historical centre of the Ribeira Grande (Cape Verde), the hydraulic system of Shushtar (Iran), the sacred town of Caral-Supe (Peru), Levoca and the works of Master Paul to Spis (extension, Slovakia), Pontcysyllte Aqueduct and Canal (UK), the Royal Tombs of the Joseon dynasty (Korea), the Sacred Sulamain Too Mountain(Kyrgyzstan), La Chaux de Fonds/Le Locle, urban clockworks (Switzerland) and Mount Wutai (China).




Agenda :

1st July

Start of the Swedish Presidency of the Council of the EU


5th July

General Elections in Bulgaria


6th-9th Juy

Informal meeting of the Employment, Social Affairs, Health and Consumer Council


7th July

Economy and Finances Council




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Editors : Thierry Chopin, Pauline Desmarest, Mathilde Durand, Sandrine Mor

Chief Editor : Pauline Desmarest
Publishing Director : Pascale Joannin


The Robert Schuman Foundation, created in 1991 and acknowledged by State decree in 1992, is the main French research centre on Europe . It develops research on the European Union and its policies and promotes the content of these in France , Europe and abroad. It encourages, enriches and stimulates European debate thanks to its research, publications and the organisation of conferences. The Foundation is presided over by Mr. Jean-Dominique Giuliani.

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